The prediction of Earthquakes has always been a problem to the modern society even after so many decades of modern science and engineering. We have faced devastating earthquakes; landslides and Tsunamis triggered by earthquakes became fatal for many countries around the Globe. In China, snakes are used to predict the occurrence of earthquakes about 70 to 75 kilometres away and about a few days before. They behave peculiarly before the occurrence of any natural calamity and try to escape the region. This biological phenomenon can be used to predict earthquakes in future smart cities by making smart equipment having the same sensors as the snakes.

Are we on the right path of technology?

The use of M R technology in making earthquake resistant buildings is surely a smart move by the engineers. But, if we can use the technology by studying the ancient wonders of the World, specially, Machu Picchu and go through their technology, we will make a smarter move.

The occurrence of earthquakes in the region of Machu Picchu is very common. The fact that it still stays calm and composed in such withering heights and steep slopes makes it a wonder of the world. People from far of lands have a glance of the masterpiece built several thousands of years ago. At that time there was no smart material to use. But they placed the rocks in such synchronization that they seldom fall down, and now, as days are passing by, they are becoming more and more stable. It is said that they have some master equation, planned by the then engineers who built the whole citadel. I think it is not completely true. The plan was not a one day plan and a one day effort. They have experienced the seismic waves and their shaking up of rock structures. They slowly made up the structure as per their convenience. It is true that they had some basic rules which they always follow, but the actual placement of rocks was on spot. On the other hand, the use of M R technology is like putting an additional jacket over a torn jacket so that it looks good. It is not an actual structure but helps to support structures in dynamic loadings. I think we need to stabilize the structure from within, rather than using an equipment to help support it.  

which is the right path?

 

The ancient structures surely give us a great amount of knowledge to use it in our present day structures. We need to look for our answers in them, because they make more stable structures. It’s worth a try for a better future. If you want a guarantee, one example is already discussed(http://kaustav-sengupta.blogspot.in/)

Knowledge begins at home

The crack 'knowledge' begins at home

As we are going into an era where we can detect any type of seismic wave, however small the amplitude of it may be, I think, the first step towards a safer future is possible if we can use the basic knowledge about the earthquakes. We know many things about them, but, many parts of the World know about how does it really experience, or what actually happens when it strikes. We will get enough theoretical knowledge about it from the internet, but, experiencing it, its cause and effects by one’s own senses, is also must. So, I think, we can start it today. The best way to have such knowledge is by going about your own house, the houses in your locality and then in your city. If you don’t find it there, then you need to go out and look for places, meet people there and have some interesting facts about them. Wherever you live, we have places nearby where people do feel these waves. It may not be devastating, but, surely it has an impact.

The crack that clicked

 One such impact was at my house. It’s a crack in one of the columns. The crack is tilted 45⁰ to the vertical and has a pretty good depth. My family members were shocked to see the crack. They told me they haven’t seen such a crack in the house before. They even told me the reason may be an earthquake. Unfortunately, I didn’t notice it even as it was behind my wardrobe. Last weekend, I was cleaning the house from its length to breadth. Pushing my wardrobe, made the column open, including the crack. I was not sure about the cause of such damage, but, a close look gave me an idea. Within a day, I found out the possible reasons of the damage. It didn't happen due to any earthquakes, but the cross ties in the column reinforcements, were not in perfect position. I asked one of the local engineers. He told that my reason may be one of them. The other reason may be sudden release of energy or trapped water may be dried out leaving the crack. Whatever be the consequences, it surely needed instant retrofitting which I was sureof. So, one should give a thorough practical knowledge about the things one study. In India, students seldom get a chance of having proper practical knowledge. We have good theoretical knowledge and projects, but, practically we lack in proper instruments. There may be cracks in buildings in areas prone to earthquakes, but the reason for their cracks may not be these waves. It may be due to improper construction techniques, which happened in my house. Sri Ramakrishna Paramhansha, guru of Swami Vivekananda, used to tell that, ’A swan has the capability of drinking milk out of the mixture of water and milk. So shall human beings learn what to choose and what not to?’

The comedy of earthquakes

The comedy of tragedies

If we want to anticipate our future, we should know the past and understand the present. These very words ‘Is there any end of the World?’ have haunted civilizations down the ages. In the Hindu mythology, the end of the world has occurred several times. Each time, the forces of nature have played its part. It is said that, last time our world faced such destructions due to ice. May be, before that, the fire had played its part. But, other than these elements of nature, there are one more forces which are equally devastating and destroying. Down the ages, it had destroyed civilizations and paved the way for a new beginning. We commonly know it as Earthquake.

The science which governs the earthquakes for me is not only materialistic science, but also philosophical science. People say that ‘when science stops , philosophy starts’. True are these words. But can we apply it on our friendly force of nature- the earthquake.

Ancient world, unknown to the modern people, was surely a strange place to live. They used to have peculiar predictions about the earthquakes. I came to know about a few civilizations that had astonishing facts about the vibration of our Mother Earth.

In India, a race of people from Assam known as Kukis, believed that people inside the Earth shook the ground to see if anyone is living on the surface. When they felt the quake, they would come out shouting, “I am alive! I am alive!” to assure the people inside that there were inhabitants on the surface.  Thus, eventually, they were always saved from such vibrations of the Earth.

The Kukis of India

 Similarly, in Japan, there is another belief among the people. They believed that a giant catfish named, Namazu or Onamazu, lived in mud beneath the Earth. The catfish liked to play pranks and could only be restrained by Kushima, a God who protected them from earthquakes. He used to control the catfish with a mighty rock kept on it with magical powers. But often when his guards were relaxed, Namazu or Onamazu would shake the Earth causing earthquakes.

Kushima controlling Nmazu

 Similarly, in Mongolia, China, a giant frog would carry the earth its back. Whenever it trembles, it would cause earthquakes.

Similar to the Indian myth, was the Peru mythology of earthquakes. They had the funniest belief of all. It was believed among them, that, whenever a major God visited the Earth to count how many people were there, his footsteps caused earthquakes. To shorten His task, people used to ran out into the streets and shout, “I am here! I am here!”, thus saved during earthquakes.

The Greek mythology was also unique. The Greek God, Poseidon, was not only the God of seas, but also, the God of earthquakes and horses. He was the brother of Zeus and son of Cronos and Rhea. He was the God of the Mediterranean Sea. He showed His power to shake the Earth in the War between the Trojans and the Greeks, where He supported the Greeks and caused the Earth to tremble.

Poseidon, the God of Earthquakes

 Among the ancient myths of earthquakes, there are recent myths too. We all know about the earthquakes caused by the seismic energy released from San Andreas Fault. There was a myth in USA that California would fall into a sea. According to recent researches, the pacific plate is moving towards north westerly direction relative to the North American plate. The movement is horizontal, so while Los Angeles is moving towards San Francisco, California won’t sink. However, earthquakes in and around California can landslides, thus, changing the shape of the coastline.

There are many predictions about the occurrence of earthquakes, and many will come. But we shouldn’t neglect to hear any of them. Whenever we get a chance, we should go through it and see if it is valid or not. It may not be scientifically proved, but may be an axiom. The best part of these beliefs and axioms are that they can give birth to theorems. Remember what Thomas Alva Edison had told,” I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work.”

Prediction of Earthquakes
Earlier, in my first blog, I had discussed about the prediction of earthquakes. Since the magnetic field is always changing in magnitude and direction at different speeds, so the occurrence of earthquakes are also occurring at different rates. But, this is not the only reason for the earthquakes occurring around the globe. I recently went through an interesting website showing the prediction of earthquakes depending on the orientation of the celestial bodies of our solar system. The theory states that, the position of the Sun, the Moon and all other planets and asteroids decides the point of epicenter of the Earth. I initially, I was amazed at such facts. But, slowly, when I read the articles present in the website I understood the depth of the facts produced by the writer. Then, I remembered about the influence of cosmic energy on Human beings. My Guru used to tell me about the radiation of cosmic energy from the planets and other heavenly bodies. They have an indirect influence on the living and non-living things on the Earth. Initially, I didn't understand any of these words but, slowly, it is making sense.
Now, I will tell you how the prediction is made. The professor determined the position of the celestial bodies in the solar system. I think, we can count the celestial bodies outside the solar system, but, as their influence on our planet is very less, so, we neglect it. Then, we pinpoint the position of these celestial bodies on our planet by a computer programming which involves mathematical geophysics. These have some complex calculations. The geoid shape of the Earth should be taken into considerations. Then, we take an example of a previously occurred earthquake and determine the position of its epicenter by GIS. Now, we have the distance between the epicenter and the different celestial bodies. Then, we put these values and the values of angle of inclination and declination of the celestial bodies in another computer generated program. This program will give an output. The output will be a ratio or a fraction of two whole numbers. By judging the ratio, we can say that the place is destined to be affected by seismic waves. Although it is a very complex way of determining the occurrence of earthquakes, and the time of occurrence is still unknown, but, we surely have a theory to search and re-search.